President Trump’s tariff threats put a sharp focus on the economy and Canada’s economic future. So do the federal government’s threat of retaliatory tariffs, which could lead to higher tariffs from the U.S.

But even before Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, concerns over affordability, productivity and economic growth were finding their way deep into Canadians’ thinking. Recent polling reveals shifts in Canadians’ views on the balance Canada should strike between environment and economy and how ambitious the country should be in addressing climate change.

This doesn’t mean Canadians don’t care about climate change or environmental protection. Many of them do. This is about strategic realignment — not about jettisoning environment as a priority.

But on climate, the headwinds are fierce. Canadians’ confidence that the country can reduce emissions is low, and their confidence in governments, corporations and citizens to take action has weakened.

Environment or economy: Prioritizing economy on the upswing

Over the last decade, the majority of Canadians have wanted the priority to be on protecting the environment even if it causes slower economic growth and some loss of jobs. But this has changed. The proportion of Canadians who prioritize the environment dropped almost 10 percentage points between 2023 and 2024 to an all-time low of 46 per cent. Meanwhile, the percentage of Canadians who say economic growth and creating jobs should be the priority even if the environment suffers to some extent grew by 10 per cent to 44 per cent, an all-time high.

Support for prioritizing the economy is highest among those in the Prairies (60 per cent) and Ontario (46 per cent), among men (48 per cent), those 35 to 54 years of age (52 per cent) and right-leaning Canadians (72 per cent). Prioritizing the environment is highest among people in Quebec (58 per cent), those 55 and older (50 per cent) and left-leaning Canadians (73 per cent).

Climate ambition weakening

The decline in prioritizing the environment can also be seen in how ambitious Canadians think the country should be in addressing climate change. When asked to rate on a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 is the worst time and 10 is the best, how good a time it is for Canada to be ambitious in addressing climate change even if there are costs to the economy, Canadians’ ambition has fallen to its lowest level (44 per cent) since tracking began in 2020 — the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Of note, ambition has tracked steadily downward over the last two years from a high of 57 per cent in spring 2023.  

Ambition is highest in Quebec (mean score of 6.5 compared to national mean of 5.4) and Atlantic Canda (5.8), among those over 55 years of age (5.8), and among left-leaning Canadians (7.7).

Those who say now is the best time often say it is because we need to act now and climate change can’t wait (82 per cent), while those who say it is the worst time most often say that Canada’s impact on climate change is minimal (19 per cent) and that there are other priorities or that Canada should focus on health and basic needs (17 per cent).

Low confidence Canada can reduce emissions

Alongside the softening of Canadians’ climate ambition is a growing lack of confidence that Canada can reduce emissions.

When asked on a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 is no confidence and 10 is absolute confidence, how much confidence they have in governments, citizens and corporations taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Canadians are more likely to have low confidence than high confidence in all players to take action. The scores for corporations are particularly low, where the proportion of Canadians who have low confidence in corporations to take action is over three times higher than those who have confidence (50 per cent low confidence compared to 14 per cent confidence).

What’s more, confidence in all players has declined significantly since 2021.

Between summer 2021 and fall 2024, Canadians are less likely to have confidence in governments creating policies to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions — from 35 per cent in 2021 down to 24 per cent in 2024. They are also less likely to have confidence in citizens changing their behavior — from 35 per cent down to 22 per cent — and corporations changing their behavior — from 21 per cent down to 14 per cent) to reduce emissions.

Confidence in governments was highest in Quebec (mean of 4.9 compared to the national mean of 4.4) and left-leaning Canadians (5.3). Confidence in corporations was highest in the Prairies (mean of 3.9 compared to national mean of 3.6) and among right-leaning Canadians (4.5). Confidence in citizens was highest in Quebec (mean of 5.1 compared to national mean of 4.6) and among supporters of the Liberal Party (4.9).

When asked what most contributes to their confidence that Canada can reduce emissions, the top response gives pause: Canadians most frequently say there is nothing that contributes to their confidence or that they have no confidence (22 per cent). This response is trailed by people taking action and holding the government accountable (12 per cent) and by the government having the will, determination or commitments (10 per cent). These responses are very similar to the last two waves of tracking in 2023 and 2021.

Asked what most undermines their confidence, people say emissions won’t be reduced with a Conservative government, if the Conservative Party is elected or if there is a change in government (nine per cent), followed by big business, oil industry interests or lobbying (eight per cent) and provinces, politicians or corporations resisting or undermining efforts (seven per cent).

Implications: Strategic realignment and building confidence

So what do these findings mean for energy policy?

First, Canadians are signalling the country needs to course correct toward more emphasis on the economy. For energy, this heralds a shift towards greater support for the economic contributions of energy and energy projects, even if there are impacts on the environment.

Second, the findings show Canadians still care about the environment and climate change. While support has weakened, close to half of Canadians prioritize environment over the economy and want to see climate action now.

But Canadians’ confidence in governments, corporations and citizens to take action on climate is very low. Many Canadians expect governments and companies to have a plan for climate, but the public and private sectors have work to do to foster Canadians’ trust in their ability to reduce emissions.

Finally, Canadians’ desire for strategic realignment towards economy looks set to intensify. President Trump’s threats and actions pose an existential crisis for the Canadian economy and public opinion will continue to shift in response. Support for measures to strengthen domestic energy security and independence is likely to grow, as is support for getting more Canadian energy to international markets beyond North America.

Stay tuned for fresh numbers in Part II of this series where we dive into Canadians’ views on the country’s domestic and global energy future.

Source: Nanos Research survey conducted for Positive Energy at the University of Ottawa, RDD dual frame hybrid telephone and online random survey between Nov. 4 and 6 2024, n=1,010 Canadians, as part of an omnibus survey. The margin of error for this survey is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Available online on the Positive Energy website.