Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is predicting a strong El Niño winter characterized by warm and dry conditions, with reduced precipitation that could result in extremely low spring water levels.

This is anticipated to present considerable challenges for operators to source and secure fresh water. Alberta Environment and Protected Areas (AEPA) is currently in water shortage management stage 4, indicating a widespread water shortage across multiple water management areas. In response, AEPA is implementing drought management planning over the next year that will include:

• Information sharing (beginning immediately)
• Development of collaborative agreements (January-March 2024)
• Implementation of collaborative agreements (March-May 2024)
• Declaration of emergency (May/June to August 2024), if there is inadequate precipitation and stream flows do not begin to rise.

It is anticipated that certain river basins may experience the curtailment of temporary diversion licences (TDLs) as early as Spring 2024, resulting in the suspension of all TDLs without prioritization. A declaration of emergency will impact all licences, with “first in time, first in right” principle serving as a key tool in managing term licence users; however, will not necessarily be prioritized based on need during a widespread drought.

An overview of river basins currently impacted by water shortage advisories is available under the low flow banner on https://rivers.alberta.ca. Basins experiencing low flow conditions will assess TDL applications on a case-by-case basis, depending on the flow conditions. The Alberta Energy Regulator is continuing to explore these issues and is working to identify creative water use strategies that may ease constraints within industry. These include exploring options for inter-basin transfer, water sharing, and addressing the question of re-allocating term licence water already in storage to other users through the use of a TDL.

The Integrated Sustainability Water Security Bulletin released in October echoed the prediction of an El Niño phase contributing to warmer and drier conditions. To receive this information directly, subscribe to our mailing list by emailing info@integratedsustainability.ca.

If you currently operate or plan to be operating within one of the affected basins in the coming months, please reach out to the Regulatory and Water Resources team for additional information. Our dedicated team of water management specialists is ready to assist in developing a water strategy aimed at mitigating the risk of water scarcity through the identification of alternate sources and asset area water balance modelling.

Ian Grant, M.Sc., P.Geo.
Manager, Water Resources
Ian.Grant@IntegratedSustainability.ca
(587) 891-1329

Yves Matson
Director, Strategic Development
Yves.Matson@IntegratedSustainability.ca
(403) 512-1688